A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu
It was Oracle mania that lighted a fire under Asian tech stocks on Thursday, as Japan, Taiwan and South Korea set records in what was otherwise set to be a subdued session before high-stakes U.S. inflation data.
Tech investor SoftBank surged 9% in Tokyo after Stargate Project partner Oracle soared 36% in its biggest one-day gain since 1992, taking the 48-year-old tech firm close to the exclusive $1 trillion market-cap club.
That was all thanks to Oracle’s expectations that AI will drive demand for its cloud infrastructure. That prompted pretty much everything AI-related in Asia to rise, by 1.2% in the Nikkei, 1% in Taiwan and 1.8% for Chinese blue chips.
AI fever did not stretch to European stocks which looked set for a muted open ahead of an interest rate decision from the European Central Bank. EUROSTOXX 50 futures inched up a 0.1%; German futures even less.
The ECB, which halved its policy rate to 2% in the year to June, is widely expected to hold steady, leaving the focus on whether it keeps the door ajar for further policy easing.
Markets imply about a 60% chance of a move by early next year.
The next big risk event will be U.S. consumer price index data. The headline CPI likely rose 2.9% from a year earlier, the fastest pace since January, while the core measure likely held at 3.1%, a Reuters poll showed.
A benign producer price index report has fanned hope for an in-line CPI, or at least nothing above 3%. Given downside risk to the labour market, investors are wagering it would take a shocking number to derail a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week, which is more than fully priced in.
For all of 2025, futures are pricing in total easing of 67 basis points, equivalent to two to three interest rate cuts.
A tame CPI report could fuel bets of a 50 basis-point cut from the Fed next week, slug the dollar and drive Treasury yields lower.
A wild report would make things tricky for the Fed and lead markets to price out a third cut for this year.
Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:
(By Stella Qiu; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
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