By Hernan Nessi
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s monthly inflation rate likely sped up to 2.6% in March, marking the second consecutive month on the rise, a median of analysts polled by Reuters showed on Wednesday.
If that figure is confirmed in official data published on Friday, it would put the government further from its goal of bringing the monthly rate down to 1%.
Despite a slowed rate in the monthly devaluation of the peso currency, known as the crawling peg, and a curb in spending on utilities, “the monthly inflation rate still hasn’t broken the long-awaited 2% barrier,” consulting firm Eco Go said in a report.
The range of the estimates from the 19 local and foreign analysts varied from 2.3% to 2.9%, with the average pegging the monthly rise at 2.6%.
The education, transportation and food sectors likely logged the highest price increases in the month, analysts said.
“The seasonality of the month, which marks the end of (the Southern Hemisphere) summer and the return to classes, implies higher rises in sectors like education,” Eco Go added.
Further uncertainty comes from abroad, with a global trade war threatening to erupt, along with market expectations of a $20 billion loan deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). That will likely translate into higher prices in coming months, analysts added.
Locally, “potential changes to the exchange-rate policy amid upcoming elections add tension to prices” as well, said economist Pablo Besmedrisnik.
“On top of the domestic reality and the IMF negotiations, the global outlook is fragile with pressure to devalue emerging currencies,” he added.
Argentina’s National Statistics Institute is set to publish March’s inflation data on Friday at 1900 GMT.
(Reporting by Hernan Nessi; Writing by Kylie Madry; Editing by Marguerita Choy)
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