By Michael S. Derby
July 6 (Reuters) – Global supply chain pressures eased in June, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Monday, as the impact of the Middle East war began to fade.
The bank’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index moved to 1.25 from an upwardly revised 1.81 in May.
The current reading compares to those last seen in late 2022, as the economy was working through disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which in turn helped drive large gains in inflation around the world. The June reading is just under the mark hit in December 2022, but is well under the 4.44 peak hit in December 2021.
Over the last several months supply chain pressures jumped due to the disruptions tied to the war in the Middle East. That conflict brought the transit of goods and energy through the critical Strait of Hormuz passage to a near standstill, which in turn helped drive up already high levels of inflation.
That conflict is now somewhere in the hazy process of being resolved and some level of transit has returned to the waterway. That’s given economists as well as Fed officials space to expect that inflation pressures will begin to abate over time.
In recent remarks, New York Fed President John Williams has warned about the risks to the price outlook posed by supply chain problems and in a June 25 speech, he said, “inflation is unquestionably elevated and well above” the 2% target.
But he also said he expects inflation pressure to moderate and said, “Assuming the supply disruptions owing to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are resolved relatively soon, energy and related goods prices should stabilize, then start to come down later this year.”
Although the New York Fed supply chain index ebbed in June, it remains high relative to recent readings. Other data released on Monday showed ongoing challenges moving goods around the economy.
The Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index showed an extended stretch of slower supplier deliveries, although June showed a very small improvement over May, according to a report from the group.
The most recent data shows “supply chains are stabilizing amid sustained business activity, giving confidence to businesses that selective, yet modest, increased employment is warranted,” said Steve Miller, who leads the ISM’s service sector survey.
Brean Capital Chief Economist John Ryding said in a note on Monday that “oil prices have retreated, for now, to essentially pre-conflict levels and companies appear to be managing the supply-chain disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is now reopening to traffic — albeit at a much lower pace at the moment than was typical back in February.”
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
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